https://www.jbcs.co/media daily 0.75 2019-03-29 https://www.jbcs.co/activities daily 1.0 2025-12-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1548310027869-XCIAP3ZCUSH8BW3URLMX/IMG_5102.jpg Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1549694114073-P9TK262YQJRAWJPESQM5/Screen%2BShot%2B2019-02-09%2Bat%2B5.33.09%2Bpm.jpg Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1549695859290-2C1RRLW38874FVNPM97H/Screen+Shot+2019-01-24+at+6.27.15+pm.jpg Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1549748798797-7VBVQTCCTDWHKSIYS6YV/Slide1.jpeg Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1550557636246-30NA32JKB3W5SPLVHNHU/edited.jpg Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1552363130216-ZCJYRWHS4LX5DW6O1RPK/Slide1.jpeg Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1587256976960-E12615XBR0Q4UQQ405JV/Screen+Shot+2020-04-19+at+10.42.12+am.png Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1623811041717-DVHV47O4JP3DAIDRVIVQ/Screen+Shot+2021-06-16+at+12.11.50+pm.png Activities - Liquid Fuel Security Conference 2020 Presentation to Liquid Fuel Security Conference in October 2020 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1581403443273-B4PEMEE7Z8OGO92AP6L1/Screen+Shot+2020-02-11+at+5.43.30+pm.png Activities - MILCIS 19 - Information Architecture Enabling National Security ADBR TV Interview of John Blackburn and Ian McDonald conducted by John Conway https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1574040696539-YIPAPCOOH0L1F5AWPMT7/Screen+Shot+2019-11-18+at+12.31.15+pm.png Activities - Interview with Dr Robbin Laird - The Gray Zone is Not Just an Away Game: We Are In Risk of “Losing Without Fighting” Whilst many Defence writers proclaim the aim of “winning without fighting,” we are much more likely to end up “losing without fighting” if we do not get serious about our supply chain vulnerabilities and related issues. The critical issue that Australians need to consider is what components of critical supply chains are owned or controlled by authoritarian powers. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1572923327289-8X584JDEKX6IT50ULOEL/Screen+Shot+2019-11-05+at+2.06.04+pm.png Activities - Maritime Trade Dependencies and Risks - A National Security Issues A vital component of Australia’s ‘infrastructure’ is the system of maritime trade. Australians need to recognise that maritime trade underpins our society, our economy and our energy systems. The framework for our preparedness should be a National Security Strategy. At the heart of a National Security Strategy, should be a Maritime Trade Strategy. Today, in Australia, neither exist. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1552893431052-6TZDHIPI74JJ52CWNRXZ/Screen+Shot+2019-03-18+at+6.16.43+pm.png Activities - Energy Security Presentation There is an assumption that “business as usual” will provide for energy security in “peacetime.” However, this ignores the reality that we already operate in a contested space, and “business as usual” is not what it was a decade ago. We are already in conflict with our competitors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1549434391112-BE7KA9OUBT860C5VL7P6/Slide1.jpeg Activities - Energy Security - is there a problem? Published in the Australian Defence Magazine, September 2018. Unfortunately the topic of energy has become so politicised, both between the major parties and within the Liberal party, that the national interest has been subsumed by both party and personal interests. The reality is that energy security, like national security, can only be addressed with consistent bipartisan political support. Whilst Australia is endowed with natural resources, energy security risks across several sectors have increased. Despite this, the Government does not seem to think we have a problem. Unfortunately, energy security is about much more than just a more “reliable” and cheaper electricity supply. It is about our security as a nation, it is about protecting our society and our way of life and, as such, it is a very complex issue. There are are significant issues with our energy systems that should concern us all; unfortunately, the analysis of our energy security and resilience is inadequate and the management of energy security has been outsourced to the market. The idea that we are at peace and “business as usual” is the appropriate model where the markets can manage all aspects of our critical infrastructure and supply chains is clearly out of date. Energy security is a vital component of national security and an increased level of Government control / leadership with respect to energy security is warranted. The discussion of these issues is not just for our politicians; it is our collective responsibility to discuss these issues and to tell our politicians what we need to have done and not wait to just complain after our energy systems fail. We need a National Security Strategy that integrates all aspects of national power. An energy security plan should be an integral part of such a strategy. DOWNLOAD THE ENERGY SECURITY ARTICLE https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1550630047312-T7L2SDA911N0TGEZDD8I/Screen+Shot+2019-02-20+at+12.12.26+pm.png Activities - Australia’s Economic Security: Is there a problem? What is the risk for our National Security and Defence Capability? Published in the Australian Defence Magazine, February 2019. Financial and economic indicators that signal the start of a downturn are evident in advanced economies. Australia is at particular risk with households currently the second most indebted in the world and with a total private sector debt ratio of 205% of GDP. We are facing a serious economic security challenge; however, most Australians (including many of our politicians) do not appear to appreciate that economic security is the foundation of our national security. We cannot rely on past economic performance and assume that we will have the resilience to address the significant economic risks in the decade ahead. Australians need to face an unpleasant reality and take appropriate action. We need a National Security Strategy that integrates all aspects of national power. An economic security plan should be an integral part of such a strategy. Download the Economic Security Article https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1599288806180-DI6UFVEJRPS46ACJ5S06/Screen+Shot+2020-09-02+at+11.30.42+am.png Activities - Integrated Information Architecture is a National Security Issue Published in the Australian Defence Magazine November 2019 In our November 2018 ADM article we noted that the current stove-piped model of Defence networks creates bottlenecks for the passage of essential, time-critical information and also constrains the passage of that information to a number of limited bandwidth classified pathways. A national IME would also need to address such bottlenecks … https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1551575351991-0716JNZRABLBCTUX31OG/Screen+Shot+2019-03-03+at+12.08.20+pm.png Activities - The “5th Generation Information Management Environment” – An Australian Defence Force Enabler or a Roadblock? Published in the Australian Defence Magazine, November 2018. The issue faced by the Australian Defence Force (ADF) today is that existing communications and information networks were not “designed” as an integrated system and do not appear to be a good foundation upon which to build the 5th Generation Force the ADF is acquiring. The ADF will need an integrated communications architecture and network, one that is not purely defined by individual projects. There is a need for systems architecture; however, this is not a function that Defence can perform by itself. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1548463546970-CPLBIXJHUHYNWWDXXRRN/Screen+Shot+2019-01-26+at+11.45.16+am.png Activities - The Williams Foundation conducted an Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD) study between Sep16 and Feb17 The aim of the study was to explore the challenges of building Australia’s IAMD capability and the implications for the Department of Defence’s integrated force design function. The study was focussed at the Program level of capability. Download the Report https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1548567455990-3QUCO7WK00OY5AHGCPKG/Screen+Shot+2019-01-27+at+4.36.38+pm.png Activities - This Report summarises the findings of a Kokoda Foundation workshop in March 2014 The Report sought to develop an understanding of the progress made on Australia’s Satellite Utilisation Policy, released in April 2013. The workshop was the first time for some years where the Department of Defence, civilian government agencies (including the Department of Industry, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Bureau of Meteorology and Geosciences Australia), commercial organisations and Academia had come together to discuss the major Space policy issues facing Australia. Download the Report https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1548314279792-8RWZVAKE485CF0VO94V7/Screen+Shot+2019-01-24+at+6.16.58+pm.png Activities - Australia’s Liquid Fuel Security Part 1 As the world’s ninth-largest energy producer, Australia has abundant renewable and non-renewable energy resources. Despite these resources, we are heavily dependent on imports of refined petroleum products and crude oil to meet our liquid fuel demand. This import dependency has increased in recent years. The very small consumption stockholdings of oil and liquid fuels in Australia, combined with what appears to be a narrow assessment of our fuel supply chain vulnerabilities, does not provide much confidence that the strategic risks to our fuel supply chain are well understood and mitigated by our nation’s leaders, the business community or the population at large. In essence, we have adopted a “she’ll be right” approach to fuel security, relying on the historical performance of global oil and fuel markets to provide in all cases. Download the Report https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1548314630527-3FCZOGEYGB6UJLLMO5YJ/Screen+Shot+2019-01-24+at+6.23.06+pm.png Activities - Australia’s Liquid Fuel Security Part 2 This second report in the Liquid fuel security series addresses four key questions: 1. How much more serious could the problem get? 2. Why has no action been taken to date? 3. What can we do about it? 4. How can we initiate action on a fuel security plan? Download the Report https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1548314880225-PJ9ZR7352VSVLFKWONQJ/Screen+Shot+2019-01-24+at+6.27.15+pm.png Activities - Benchmarking Australia’s Transport Energy Policies This third report in the Liquid fuel security series benchmarks Australia’s energy security policies against those of other nations and finds Australia out of step with virtually every other comparable country in the world. Australia is the only oil/fuel importing country in the developed world that has none of the following: public owned oil/fuel stocks and/or mandated commercial stock holdings and/or government control or participation in the country’s oil/fuel markets. We alone, amongst all developed oil importing countries, rely completely on commercial market forces for our transport energy security. This is no less perilous than contracting out our Defence Forces or out-sourcing our food supply. Download the Report https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1548568831773-MDQVDCBM6YNKA2F0UL9R/Screen+Shot+2019-01-27+at+4.59.43+pm.png Activities OVERVIEW OF FUEL SECURITY ISSUES PRESENTED TO THE SENATE INQUIRY INTO AUSTRALIA’S TRANSPORT ENERGY RESILEINCE AND SUSTAINABILITY IN 2015 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1548566646122-2C4458MDY26K99Y3J1IM/Screen+Shot+2019-01-27+at+4.23.41+pm.png Activities - Australian Defence Logistics This report aims to highlight to the wider Defence community the challenges faced by Defence Logisticians and the lack of priority that Defence leaders have placed on Logistics systems in the past. Its fundamental contention is that Defence will need to place greater emphasis on the Defence Logistics function if it is to meet the challenges of a more complex and challenging operating environment in the future. Given the complexity of the Logistics challenge, the report provides a high-level overview of Defence Logistics. Download the Report https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1548566856088-EVD42H62OXKRG96TBZ0C/Screen+Shot+2019-01-27+at+4.26.56+pm.png Activities - Optimising Australia’s Response to the Cyber Challenge The Kokoda Foundation embarked on a study of the cyber challenge faced by Australia for two reasons: First, the government’s identification of cyber security as a national security priority. Second, because of concerns that whilst the actions taken by the government and some segments of industry are highly laudable, the breadth, scale and growth rate of the threat are such that the current cyber security program is simply not sufficient. This report examines the nature of the cyber challenge confronting Australia. It reviews how government, industry and the public are responding to the threat both individually and collectively from both a domestic and international perspective. Download the Report https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1548987433248-M8DZWF72ILHVDI7O6NAS/Screen%2BShot%2B2019-02-01%2Bat%2B1.15.52%2Bpm.jpg Activities - Institute For Integrated Economic Research The key objective of the IIER research is to include all the main aspects that form a "human ecosystem" to integrate relevant information into one larger picture with the aim of creating deeper insight into the economics of our world. The IIER tries to connect resources, geographies, various stakeholders, as well as macro- and microeconomic views into models that are as complete as possible, and which hopefully allow readers to draw more solid conclusions than any partial view would yield. John Blackburn is an Advisory board member of the IIER and the Board Chair of the affiliated IIER-Australia thinktank. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1548987126218-6XW19F4D9NVDG9PVPNK5/Slide1.jpeg Activities - SLDInfo.com The Second Line of Defense team is a group of globally based analysts and strategists who work closely together in thinking through the nature of the evolving strategic environment and provides regular interviews with key participants in evolving military capabilities based on global reporting. John Blackburn is a contributor to SLDinfo.com. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1548986136914-AMZK3JB5S3ES47WNMEOL/Slide1.jpeg Activities - DEFENSE.info The defense.info team is a group of globally based analysts and strategists who are focused on strategic issues which the mainstream media often simply does not cover, or interprets in terms of legacy thinking and approaches. Our core team of strategic thinkers has provided interactive analyses of the evolving global environment and challenges facing the liberal democracies and their evolving defense and security policies. John Blackburn is a contributor to Defense.info. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1548991988323-PHWOJTFTCWD33H68LN8K/Slide1.jpeg Activities - Opérationnels SLDS Opérationnels SLDS is a leading edge French defense magazine. John Blackburn is a member of the Opérationnels Editorial Board. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1548986417381-9VMX814BF03R31VNDOIS/Slide1.jpeg Activities - Sir Richard Williams Foundation The Sir Richard Williams Foundation is an independent research organisation whose purpose is to promote the development and effective implementation of national security and defence policies as they impact on Australia’s ability to generate air power appropriate to its unique geopolitical environment and values. John Blackburn is a Fellow of the Foundation and a former Deputy Chair of the Foundation Board. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1548986659405-J45LQB381ES0G2EY4JOH/Slide1.jpeg Activities - The Institute for Regional Security Since its inception in 2005, firstly as the Kokoda Foundation and now as the Institute For Regional Security, it has been at the forefront of the intellectual effort needed to grapple with Australia’s future security challenges. The Institute researches, develops and fosters innovative thinking on future security challenges to Australia and the region, and aims to develop the next generation of advanced strategic thinkers to address these challenges. John Blackburn is a Fellow of the Institute and a former Chair of the Kokoda Foundation Board. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1549066579471-FP3PGRR2NG1USWAQU5G3/Screen+Shot+2019-02-02+at+11.15.48+am.png Activities - The Royal Society of New South Wales The Society encourages "... studies and investigations in Science, Art, Literature and Philosophy." Throughout its history, the Society has done much to foster local research, particularly in science, through meetings, symposia, publications and international scientific exchange, and has supported and fostered the endeavours of other organizations dedicated to the furtherance of knowledge. John Blackburn is a Fellow of the Society. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1549748323424-WOSE4XFBGJ2PVMLOKTNK/SETP-Logo.jpg Activities - The Society of Experimental Test Pilots From its beginning on 14 September 1955 when six civilian test pilots met for lunch at a cafe near Edwards Air Force Base on California's high desert, The Society of Experimental Test Pilots has grown into an internationally recognized organization which has made its mark in the aerospace world. The SETP aims to be the recognized world leader in promoting safety, communication and education in the design & flight test of aerospace vehicles and their related systems. It maintains a viable professional and prestigious international society for all test pilots and aerospace corporations. John Blackburn is a Life Member of the Society. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1548987768706-VS5UP1XNOURWQBSGBN1R/Screen+Shot+2019-02-01+at+1.22.26+pm.png Activities - Australian Strategic Policy Institute ASPI is an independent, non-partisan think tank that produces expert and timely advice for Australia’s strategic and defence leaders. ASPI generates new ideas for government, allowing them to make better-informed decisions for Australia’s future. ASPI is one of the most authoritative and widely quoted contributors to public discussion of strategic policy issues in Australia and a recognised and authoritative Australian voice in international discussion of strategic issues, especially in the Asia-Pacific. John Blackburn is a former ASPI Council member. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1584329078488-D55BM3A6DSJ8MMQFR781/John_Blackburn_AO_9a82.jpg Activities - Defence and National Security Consultant My consulting company provides strategic analysis, advice and support focussed on the Australian Defence and National Security Market to clients ranging from Defence Primes through to Small to Medium Enterprises. A consistent need has been to provide foreign companies with local knowledge and perspectives … in effect a cultural and organisational translation service. I do not perform any sales or business development functions. I only work on projects that have value for the security of Australia and that are of intellectual interest to me. My ability to provide this service results from extensive Defence and Defence Industry experience as detailed here. Consulting clients have included the NRMA, Australian Department of Defence, Australian Government Departments, aadi Defence Pty Ltd, Accenture, Booz & Co, Cubic Mission Solutions, H2U, Kellogg Brown and Root, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Penten, the NSW State Government, Ocean Software, Symbiotics Ltd and ThoughtWeb Inc. Where necessary, I bring together teams with diverse experience to support a specific client need. Linkedin Profile https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1629013602954-CXKIRZH4O93QM3F9NGEQ/Screen+Shot+2021-08-15+at+5.46.18+pm.png Activities - Australia’s Liquid Fuel Insecurity in 2021 too little, too late, and too short-sighted Australian Governments have largely reacted to crises rather than prepare for foreseeable system failures. Over the past decade, concerns regarding potential energy security risks were often minimised by Government Ministers from both sides of politics, as well as by some Government Departments. In September 2020, faced with the impending closure of the last four oil refineries in Australia, the Government finally responded to our fuel insecurity. Sadly, the Minister’s announcement was too little, too late, and too short-sighted as only two of the four refineries agreed to accept the Government’s support plan and to be contracted to remain open until 2027. It may have moved the issue off the agenda for the next Federal election; however, there is no public plan for what will happen with respect to our fuel security after 2027. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1549788876827-I2O8PQKR5BRNDSYHYGK1/Screen+Shot+2019-01-27+at+4.26.56+pm.png Activities - My Own Reality Check … My own reality check came about when I teamed with Dr Gary Waters in 2011 to research and write this report on Australia’s Cyber Security. In the process of researching that report we found that few organisations, including our own Defence Force, had conducted a cyber resilience analysis of their supply chains, it was merely assumed. Having by then grasped the scale of our own cyber vulnerabilites, we realised that all essential supply chains were at risk. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1549779161989-DYCE8LNDKELESZXRQNLI/Screen+Shot+2019-01-24+at+6.16.58+pm.png Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1549779184507-83051J5O7KUX5GNJNRUP/Screen+Shot+2019-01-24+at+6.23.06+pm.png Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1549779211744-E5X6R8EW5508Q084B4A0/Screen+Shot+2019-01-24+at+6.27.15+pm.png Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1549789006108-TSEHO1Z1D3T8G2E7OFPA/Screen+Shot+2019-01-27+at+4.23.41+pm.png Activities - Defence Logistics Report Gary and I then went on to study and write this report on Defence Logistics in 2014. That process did not reassure us either; we concluded that the global nature of supply chains combined with efficiency changes had led to increased systemic risk and reduced resilience in some cases. We recommended that Defence needed to take a fresh look at Enterprise risk assessment and the changing nature of logistics support. The systemic risk example we include in our report is shown below. We still await a response …both from Defence and the Government. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1549778265696-JBOJ5WRAL7KW1PI0L8PF/Screen+Shot+2019-02-10+at+4.57.15+pm.png Activities A SYSTEMIC RISK EXAMPLE CONTAINED IN THE DEFENCE LOGISTICS REPORT https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1549789617935-81TKVVPHSFZH7PBNDJAM/Screen+Shot+2019-02-10+at+8.06.32+pm.png Activities - Senate Inquiry into “Australia's transport energy resilience and sustainability” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1549789263739-EVP4NK81J7LP84B08L6J/image-asset.jpeg Activities - The promised 2015 National Energy Security Assessment … was still not delivered. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1549789884195-6OYQ8YKUCFRSJ2HUUV3C/Screen+Shot+2019-02-10+at+8.11.01+pm.png Activities - In March 2018, the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security published an Advisory report on the Security of Critical Infrastructure Bill 2017. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1549834698954-UY1J6C185OCH925T8KUV/Screen+Shot+2019-02-11+at+8.37.55+am.png Activities - ABC News Article Jan 19 ABC NEWS 23 JAN 19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1568601043396-AU2P4HI8ZM0MI7KLFU8E/Screen+Shot+2019-09-16+at+12.29.20+pm.png Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1623809549066-TBX7J5VPJ6BJ0GG7HO2U/Screen+Shot+2021-06-16+at+12.11.50+pm.png Activities - Australia’s Liquid Fuel Security Presentation to the Liquid Fuel Security Conference - 27 October 2020 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1549835530725-DSQSVDC6TXI8S12YDG11/Screen+Shot+2019-02-11+at+8.51.42+am.png Activities OVERVIEW CONTAINED IN MY ENERGY SECURITY PRESENTATION https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1549835725138-E5KDU4S18KMVBMO23NIQ/Screen+Shot+2019-02-11+at+8.54.49+am.png Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1550554384707-0C1V5E2YIRIUSXA5DQFD/Slide1.jpeg Activities - Australia does not have a National Security Strategy We had one in 2013 … but it has since faded from view to be replaced by stovepiped, reactive, security policies. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/83e09abb-5ad6-49f8-970c-66aaaa6c91e3/Screenshot+2025-12-30+at+15.31.43.png Activities In a discussion with Dr Carl Rhodes and Dr Christine Leah, I discuss the sobering reality for Australia’s Defence posture. I conclude that the easiest way to undermine Australia isn’t through military force, it’s through vulnerabilities in infrastructure, cyber systems, foreign ownership of critical assets, and lack of sovereign shipping for fuel and supplies. Deterrence isn’t just about platforms; it’s about controlling the levers of survival. Energy security, supply chain sovereignty, and infrastructure resilience matter as much as submarines and fighter jets. We discuss what steps we could take to ensure true resilience in an era of strategic competition. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1e5813ec-dc81-45ca-9599-ecc97e816b03/06321923-4bf6-469d-89a5-356df2b94c49_1100x1100.webp Activities - Make it stand out AI Image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/b85a129c-6d90-49d6-825a-e40ecb4e2973/Screenshot+2023-05-28+at+11.57.25.png Activities - Presentation to the 2022 Air and Space Symposium - National Resilience and Innovation in Australia The 2022 Air and Space Power Conference explored resilient and innovative approaches to achieve national and regional advantage in air and space power. The conference provided an opportunity for the military and national security communities to explore different elements of national, industry, military and societal resilience, and to understand the resulting threats and emerging opportunities to air and space power’s ability to shape, deter, and respond. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/3d5f82c4-079d-475a-bb00-12c9ebfd1abc/Screenshot+2023-05-28+at+12.38.21.png Activities - Presentation to the 2018 RAAF Airpower Conference - Energy Security There is an assumption that “business as usual” will provide for energy security in “peacetime.” However, this ignores the reality that we already operate in a contested space, and “business as usual” is not what it was a decade ago. We are already in conflict with our competitors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/e22aef65-0058-410d-baef-4d2b823acf34/Screenshot+2023-05-17+at+16.42.31.png Activities - The Williams Foundation conducted an Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) study between Sep16 and Feb17 The aim of the study was to explore the challenges of building Australia’s IAMD capability and the implications for the Department of Defence’s integrated force design function. The study was focussed at the Program level of capability.. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/08616b15-7867-4bc1-8780-fef68b11e0cf/Screenshot+2023-05-17+at+17.02.41.png Activities - Integrated Information Architecture is a National Security Issue Published in the Australian Defence Magazine November 2019 In our November 2018 ADM article we noted that the current stove-piped model of Defence networks creates bottlenecks for the passage of essential, time-critical information and also constrains the passage of that information to a number of limited bandwidth classified pathways. A national IME would also need to address such bottlenecks … https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/b0608ac1-21ac-45ba-8d65-f79382ce04f2/Screenshot+2023-05-17+at+17.04.50.png Activities - The “5th Generation Information Management Environment” – An Australian Defence Force Enabler or a Roadblock? Published in the Australian Defence Magazine, November 2018. The issue faced by the Australian Defence Force (ADF) today is that existing communications and information networks were not “designed” as an integrated system and do not appear to be a good foundation upon which to build the 5th Generation Force the ADF is acquiring. The ADF will need an integrated communications architecture and network, one that is not purely defined by individual projects. There is a need for systems architecture; however, this is not a function that Defence can perform by itself. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592636115302-G0AXDZPQQQ2XJZURIU5Q/Slide4.png Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592636099409-U7RAWYVOQVBYQJHDJII0/Slide2.png Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592636091149-34E2RJQRRA6LPJO3D9WZ/Slide1.png Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592636106466-G1WBXBBST5NB1SXTYB2S/Slide3.png Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592807599616-J72S30SJ02KQDCBIC25L/IIER+Icons+JSF+White+shad.png Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592637307051-B6GDZZGDYEJODUYRU138/Presentation1.png Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592700194537-Y5HTUBZG5HXGUT2CBKS6/IIER+Icons+Energy.png Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592700663205-KKCRFJLAGRD5HQHZ31KS/IIER+Icons+Economy.png Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592701025907-D2RH1A77YY440HJ3DG9G/IIER+Icons+Env.png Activities https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592701840581-IPM9KP06YI42O8J5537L/IIER+Icons+Europe.png Activities https://www.jbcs.co/nacht daily 0.75 2016-03-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56d4a125e707eb7a02e4055f/1456783943006-7TCJ0ZZ2NS58BMQHHRKC/83.jpg Nacht https://www.jbcs.co/about daily 0.75 2024-01-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1548313938769-1955KMLUDUAR8VB8XT6C/IMG_9280.jpg About https://www.jbcs.co/iieraust-2 daily 0.75 2020-06-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1587256976960-E12615XBR0Q4UQQ405JV/Screen+Shot+2020-04-19+at+10.42.12+am.png IIER-Australia Original https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1587257039275-E1Q7PVHXOQHFHQ9ONBPS/Screen+Shot+2020-04-19+at+10.42.12+am.png IIER-Australia Original - The Institute for Integrated Economic Research-Australia The Institute for Integrated Economic Research (IIER) - Australia was founded in 2018. It conducts and supports research in order to contribute to an improved understanding of how Australians can plan for, and navigate, the significant transitions in Energy, Environment and Economic Systems over forthcoming decades whilst maintaining the stability and security of our society. These three areas are closely interlinked, but largely managed as separate competing issues, as a result of near-term political goals. We need a National Security or Sovereignty Strategy that integrates these and other related systems, such as information and infrastructure, under a National Resilience Framework. To address this challenge, the Institute will engage with a range of Australian think tanks, Universities, Federal and State Government department representatives, media and relevant community groups. The Institute is an independent, non-partisan, not-for-profit organisation. It will not lobby for, nor represent, any specific industry sector or business. The IIER-Australia Board members are : Air Vice-Marshal (Retd) John Blackburn AO, Anne Borzycki, Neil Greet, Dr Hannes Kunz and Dr Gary Waters. The Institute’s Fellows are Dr Simon Quilty, Dr Paul Barnes, Dr David Hyland-Wood, Dr Graeme Taylor, Cheryl Durrant, Bernadette Hyland-Wood, Ian McDonald AM, Dr Michael Thomas, Dr Anthony Bergin, Professor Ted Goranson, Dr Robbin Laird, Lloyd Bennett, Stephen Hayes MBE, Dr Ed Morgan, Vince Di Pietro AM CSC, Jack Jacometti, Ian Dunlop, Dr Pamela Kinnear, Dr Stephen Mugford, David Korowicz, Dr Peter Sokolowski, Hans van der Loo and Dr Andrew Dowse AO. The Institute has also initiated an Associates program whereby individuals can be researchers and contributors to IIER-A activities. The IIER-Australia is affiliated, but not financially / organisationally linked with the Europe based Institute for Integrated Economic Research. That Institute is a non-profit organization that is focused on identifying empirically validated macroeconomic system descriptions and models, and ensuring their dissemination. The IIER-Australia benefits from the extensive research conducted by the IIER in Europe. IIER Europe publications and links are at the bottom of this page. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1588203251947-PC3UEX9HNRPJHRKNWHV0/Screen+Shot+2020-04-30+at+9.33.18+am.png IIER-Australia Original https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1588201997454-H5OJANNH1NEAYV1T5UNC/Screen+Shot+2020-04-30+at+9.12.37+am.png IIER-Australia Original https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1588203289471-0N36IYIF4JSGCKMDHSHX/Screen+Shot+2020-04-30+at+9.32.48+am.png IIER-Australia Original https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592097307226-86OQIF5BJRVVLY8HR8G8/Screen+Shot+2020-06-14+at+11.06.03+am.png IIER-Australia Original https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592096457559-0N2KMVUENVWVBNQDV5RX/Screen+Shot+2020-06-14+at+11.00.41+am.png IIER-Australia Original https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592095603214-254ZZ0WR0RGCXQW5JEML/Screen+Shot+2020-06-14+at+10.46.01+am.png IIER-Australia Original https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592096317743-RCIUBXVEG6GGJ6UBS5ZA/Screen+Shot+2020-06-14+at+10.51.46+am.png IIER-Australia Original https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1587884891009-G2QEXSKNBZ0ZHSI4I1V2/Screen+Shot+2020-04-26+at+5.07.55+pm.png IIER-Australia Original - Smart Sovereignty & Trusted Supply Chains - A National Sovereignty / Resilience Imperative. We had the opportunity to present the attached brief to the Australian Joint Parliamentary Committee for Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade on 22 April 2020. Key points included: The Coronavirus pandemic has exposed a global lack of resilience as a result of a collective failure to assess and act on national risks and vulnerabilities in the face of a rapidly changing world. Global trade and diverse supply chains are essential and will remain the predominant model into the future. However, we need to redesign critical components of our supply chains using the “Smart Sovereignty” model described in the brief. The complement to Smart Sovereignty is “Trusted Supply Chains.” Where we depend on global trade imports, we must have diverse and transparent supply chains and have the ability to verify them. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1585529978708-ASOJSD01WF75QZVZ5NUW/Screen+Shot+2020-03-30+at+11.59.05+am.png IIER-Australia Original - Shortages of personal protective equipment, medical devices, and medicines – what’s happening in Australia? The COVID-19 pandemic has seen a significant increase in public discussion about medical supply chains in general, and Australia’s exposure to shortages of critical medical items because we are at the end of a long and complex global supply network. The Australian National Strategic Stockpile of medicines and personal protective equipment (referred to as PPE) has also been in the headlines. Unfortunately, the shortages of critical PPE for frontline healthcare workers would suggest that the National Strategic Stockpile is falling well short of the need … The scrambling by the Government, and indeed a number of not-for-profits, to procure PPE (especially masks) from whoever and wherever they can, should be a lesson for those responsible for the future stocking of the stockpile. What could Australia do differently to be ready when, not if, the next pandemic strikes? And it is very unlikely we will be waiting 50 or 100 years for it to occur. As the financial advisors say - past performance is not a guarantee of future results ... https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1581814523697-IF7ZVPRKSLKGBF60M496/Screen+Shot+2020-02-16+at+11.54.43+am.png IIER-Australia Original - AUSTRALIA’S MEDICINE SUPPLY - is our Health a National Security / Resilience Issue ? Australia imports over 90% of medicines and is at the end of a very long global supply chain making the nation vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. The TGA has acknowledged these supply chain risks when they report that at times there may not be enough of a specific medicine in the Australian marketplace, leading to potential weaknesses in supply. Australia is particularly vulnerable to medicine shortages arising from factors outside our control. These factors can include manufacturing problems, difficulties in procurement, political instability, pandemics, another global economic crisis and a range of natural disasters. The current Coronavirus emergency is an example of this. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1586061256676-ZAGHACSZQP1NX5PS2KC6/Screen+Shot+2020-04-05+at+2.34.04+pm.png IIER-Australia Original - Sky News Report : Over reliance on China 'must never happen again' This news segment highlights the Institute’s “Australia’s Medicine Supply Chain” Report. Click on the image at right to view https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1586065996981-QPMTSA0B1LZHVW3AV8UZ/Screen+Shot+2020-04-05+at+3.52.58+pm.png IIER-Australia Original - MARITIME TRADE DEPENDENCIES AND RISKS - A National Security Issue At the heart of a National Security Strategy, there should be a Maritime Trade Strategy. Today, in Australia, neither exist. This Article summarises the presentation made to the Australian Naval Institute Goldrick Seminar in Oct 19. It discusses some of the issues that could be considered in such a risk assessment. These include intentional interruption of trade, collateral damage from events such as an economic crisis leading to a failure of credit, natural disasters and climate change and PANDEMICS. Who would have thought ? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1588483880145-IAUGJLL1H4DY080L4IJY/IMG_0889.jpeg IIER-Australia Original - Dare to Prepare Ch 7 Weekend Sunrise Program interview on 3 May 20 regarding Australia’s supply chain vulnerabilities and the need for “Smart Sovereignty.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1588202244680-9MJYIGIXO4UULD6DRVTV/Screen+Shot+2020-04-30+at+9.17.03+am.png IIER-Australia Original - Confidential report predicted how long it would take for essential services to break down during a major crisis The 26 Apr 20 ABC 7:30 Report featuring IIER-A Fellow Cheryl Durrant and Chair John Blackburn. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1588322619347-5O1Q8ONKFDOX6Y44ZCV2/Screen+Shot+2020-05-01+at+6.42.26+pm.png IIER-Australia Original - COVID-19 Warnings Ignored? Channel 9 Today Show 29 Apr 20 - "When you write about these things in times when you're not in a crisis, people aren't really that interested." https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1588202483326-MKQGJL4QS2KLR6OTHCOE/Screen+Shot+2020-04-30+at+9.20.55+am.png IIER-Australia Original - Think of coronavirus as a test run: Australian military leaders warn we must prepare for worse As Australia was swept by panic buying and medical shortages this year, the scenes were eerily familiar for one of the country's most senior military planners … this is the 27 Apr 20 ABC online article featuring IIER-A Fellow Cheryl Durrant and Chair John Blackburn. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1583127320193-IGS5SC7TSO2DFYKCFTA4/John_Blackburn_AO_9a82.jpg IIER-Australia Original - Defence Connect Podcast - INSIGHT: National resilience – John Blackburn AO, Institute for Integrated Economic Research – Australia On this inaugural episode of Defence Connect Insight Podcast, hosts Phil Tarrant and Steve Kuper are joined by John Blackburn to delve into the complex and somewhat controversial subject of Australia’s national resilience. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1555287789534-JKZF88M9A0332E4GOS48/Screen+Shot+2019-04-15+at+10.22.38+am.png IIER-Australia Original - John Blackburn’s Interview with Dr Robbin Laird- April 2019 The interview discusses an example of a common problem in Australia – a lack of systems thinking in the Government. The current energy focus is on exports and export earnings at the cost of domestic security and domestic cost of energy supplies. Blackburn argues that if you take a broader view, we could consider how different energy supplies / systems could be integrated under a comprehensive strategy which would enable exports but within an approach that was based first upon domestic costs and supply considerations and national security. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1571989440859-0BVBGGSI1R2431ASGCO8/Screen+Shot+2019-10-25+at+6.42.51+pm.png IIER-Australia Original - Understanding Disaster Resilience - Climate Change A short video for the Emergency Management Australia Disaster Resilence Workshops https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1576987132239-5RB6TH386IAXCJGAE397/Screen+Shot+2019-12-22+at+2.58.36+pm.png IIER-Australia Original - The Gray Zone is Not Just an Away Game: We Are In Risk of “Losing Without Fighting” Dr Robbin Laird’s interview of John Blackburn, Defense.info on 17 November 2019 Whilst many Defence writers proclaim the aim of “winning without fighting,” we are much more likely to end up “losing without fighting” if we do not get serious about our supply chain vulnerabilities and related issues. The critical issue that Australians need to consider is what components of critical supply chains are owned or controlled by authoritarian powers. This clearly means that there is a need for a much broader security concept than simply preparing for high end kinetic warfare or engaging at distance from our nations in “gray zone areas.” Trade and manufacturing vulnerabilities in our societies are reshaping the liberal democracies to be the “gray zones” when it comes to being vulnerable to deliberate disruptions in times of crisis. We need to stop congratulating ourselves for acquiring the latest 5th Gen platform and understand that our security cannot be guaranteed merely by pledging to expend 2% of our GDP on Defence. We need a comprehensive National Security Strategy that acknowledges the world has changes. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1576986340087-06XEC0518WWZQIEVNL9L/Screen+Shot+2019-12-22+at+2.45.24+pm.png IIER-Australia Original - Re-Thinking Australia’s National Security Strategy – Lessons from the 1930s for the 2030s Published on Defense.info on 4 December 2019 During the 1920s the rise of Japan was preoccupying the national security discussions within the Australian Government. What role would Britain play in the Asia-Pacific region? Interestingly, these same issues and challenges are being discussed today in Australia: simply replace China for Japan, and the US for Britain. By the 1930s the situation in Europe, and events unfolding in Asia (particularly Japan’s seizure of Manchuria), triggered a step-up in the rhetoric and policy considerations about Australia’s national security. The public debate involved not only the political leadership of the time, but intellectuals and businessmen. A notable businessman of the era who contributed significantly to Australia’s capacity to prepare for the coming conflict was Essington Lewis, the managing director of BHP. He urged the government and industry to prepare for war and he also took action himself: establishing large stockpiles of raw materials, co-founding the Commonwealth Aircraft Corporation and establishing munitions annexes at the steelworks. How many business leaders today would have the foresight of Lewis and then take the lead in driving a national security agenda? It is unfortunate that the whole-of-government approach so effectively employed during the Second World War, is not a feature of Australian government planning in 2019. How can the Australian government understand and manage the interconnected elements of national security (for example the economy, infrastructure, industry, maritime trade, energy, environment, defence) without a whole-of-government approach? This whole-of-government approach should be integrated under a national security strategy. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1555308338183-MFZAQJB00AM45R2LZGAG/Screen+Shot+2019-04-15+at+4.04.55+pm.png IIER-Australia Original - Energy Security - Is there a problem? Published in the Australian Defence Magazine, September 2018. Unfortunately the topic of energy has become so politicised, both between the major parties and within the Liberal party, that the national interest has been subsumed by both party and personal interests. The reality is that energy security, like national security, can only be addressed with consistent bipartisan political support. Whilst Australia is endowed with natural resources, energy security risks across several sectors have increased. Despite this, the Government does not seem to think we have a problem. Unfortunately, energy security is about much more than just a more “reliable” and cheaper electricity supply. It is about our security as a nation, it is about protecting our society and our way of life and, as such, it is a very complex issue. There are are significant issues with our energy systems that should concern us all; unfortunately, the analysis of our energy security and resilience is inadequate and the management of energy security has been outsourced to the market. The idea that we are at peace and “business as usual” is the appropriate model where the markets can manage all aspects of our critical infrastructure and supply chains is clearly out of date. Energy security is a vital component of national security and an increased level of Government control / leadership with respect to energy security is warranted. The discussion of these issues is not just for our politicians; it is our collective responsibility to discuss these issues and to tell our politicians what we need to have done and not wait to just complain after our energy systems fail. We need a National Security Strategy that integrates all aspects of national power. An energy security plan should be an integral part of such a strategy. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1550625997459-XQN9BSDZ7VS774BW46BP/Screen+Shot+2019-02-20+at+12.12.26+pm.png IIER-Australia Original - Australia’s Economic Security: Is there a problem? What is the risk for our National Security and Defence Capability? Published in the Australian Defence Magazine, February 2019. Financial and economic indicators that signal the start of a downturn are evident in advanced economies. Australia is at particular risk with households currently the second most indebted in the world and with a total private sector debt ratio of 205% of GDP. We are facing a serious economic security challenge; however, most Australians (including many of our politicians) do not appear to appreciate that economic security is the foundation of our national security. We cannot rely on past economic performance and assume that we will have the resilience to address the significant economic risks in the decade ahead. Australians need to face an unpleasant reality and take appropriate action. We need a National Security Strategy that integrates all aspects of national power. An economic security plan should be an integral part of such a strategy. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1555294679013-MV425EECB7S37IJPL6E3/Screen+Shot+2019-04-15+at+12.14.44+pm.png IIER-Australia Original - Are our Assumptions about Climate Change and Environmental Degradation a risk to National Security? Today we are confronted by global environmental degradation and climate change, occurring at an unprecedented scale and speed; with cascading and ramifying risks transferred to infrastructure, energy systems and the global economy. At this scale climate change impacts at every level of our military and national security systems. Yet, while the interlinking of climate and environment with national security is recognised, it is still seen as a driver that attracts only secondary or tertiary importance. This article is the third of the opening series by the Institute of Integrated Economics Research (IIER) - Australia, and completes the trilogy of economics, energy and environment framed within a national security perspective. This article was published in the June 2019 issue of the Australian Defence Magazine https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1571979387060-VKAOFOXH40H5I18SGCTS/Screen+Shot+2019-10-25+at+3.52.37+pm.png IIER-Australia Original - Dr Simon Quilty’s Article on Australia’s Drug Supply Chain Risks Australia’s supply chain for the entire range of healthcare products is incredibly complex. There are, of course, national and international regulatory frameworks to ensure quality and ongoing supply. However, these were set up more than three decades ago. Are they still fit for purpose? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1554502845965-Z7JEFUSWW0Y09IK3REHX/Screen+Shot+2019-04-06+at+9.20.25+am.png IIER-Australia Original - National Hydrogen Strategy Discussion Paper Response This paper was submitted by the IIER-Australia in response to the invitation to respond to the COAG energy Council National Hydrogen Strategy Discussion Paper in April 2019. It concludes that Hydrogen can contribute to Australia’s national security by providing an alternative energy source that is domestically generated, Australian-owned, economically beneficial, environmentally sound if supported by policy that takes energy security seriously. Developing the policies to deliver the National Hydrogen Strategy must occur within the framework of national security and be implemented under an integrated system level design. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1555309228872-S9Q3BTKBAECY36XXKIVU/Screen+Shot+2019-04-15+at+4.19.18+pm.png IIER-Australia Original - In February 2018, Dr Hannes Kunz, President Board of Directors IIER visited Australia and gave this presentation at the Australian National University Macroeconomics has locked into a view based on 250 years of industrialisation to describe an ecologically dangerous future. During the past 8 years new credit has globally grown at the fastest pace in tracked history, with less and less benefit for societies. Total levels are unsustainable and will eventually require a correction. The presentation concludes that: - Markets are fundamentally broken. - Sustainable economic growth is a thing of the past - credit ballooning is a must to keep going - We’re in a 5-15 year “positioning” period for various possible future scenarios - There may be significant market movements (including upsides) during that period. - Nothing is long-term predictable. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1555308447942-A0Q1D2L2NMWOZQNLUM31/Screen+Shot+2019-04-15+at+4.07.01+pm.png IIER-Australia Original - IIER Paper - Revisiting the rules of economics Most economic theories of the late 20th century are based on models built around the assumption of system-inherent growth. Despite still available headline GDP growth, most people in advanced economies are experiencing shrinking incomes and quickly growing cost of living. Our world is not sufficiently prepared to deal with those trajectories. IIER research helps by shifting the focus of societies away from the objective of “getting growth back at all cost” to “mitigating possible stagnation or decline.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1555292429407-BF7O4ZT60I3SJJCJIS9O/Screen+Shot+2019-04-15+at+11.38.41+am.png IIER-Australia Original - IIER Paper - Nudging 3% of voters to keep democracies intact This paper discusses how to reduce the voter potential of far-right or -left movements with simplistic “solutions” just enough to keep them from taking power and turning an already precarious economic and societal situation to even more dire proportions. One major obstacle in fighting fringe parties is that few politicians today are ready to tell voters the truth: that the future might hold less economic promise and that we must stop focusing on growth, but instead accept the challenge to focus on wellbeing on a broader scale. A large proportion of advanced societies’ populations intuitively grasps this reality, as polls show, but it is neither supported by the electoral discourse nor any other credible source. https://www.jbcs.co/iieraustralia-about daily 0.75 2026-01-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1587256976960-E12615XBR0Q4UQQ405JV/Screen+Shot+2020-04-19+at+10.42.12+am.png IIER-Australia About https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592636317744-69NLM3N5P80L7I0OWLT1/Slide1.png IIER-Australia About - The Institute for Integrated Economic Research-Australia The Institute for Integrated Economic Research (IIER) - Australia was founded in 2018. It conducts and supports research in order to contribute to an improved understanding of how Australians can plan for, and navigate, the significant transitions in Energy, Environment and Economic Systems over forthcoming decades whilst maintaining the stability and security of our society. These three areas are closely interlinked, but largely managed as separate competing issues, as a result of near-term political goals. We need a National Security or Sovereignty Strategy that integrates these and other related systems, such as information and infrastructure, under a National Resilience Framework. To address this challenge, the Institute will engage with a range of Australian think tanks, Universities, Federal and State Government department representatives, media and relevant community groups. The Institute is an independent, non-partisan, not-for-profit organisation. It will not lobby for, nor represent, any specific industry sector or business. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1756878904299-06JWVBPTQCXA1UZKWBBF/JB+SZC.jpeg IIER-Australia About - John Blackburn https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592707318059-GYNHUQBWHVWIF3NXJED2/IMG_0070.jpeg IIER-Australia About - Anne Borzycki https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592717577199-R4J4PIT2LTB0YY5KT2Q3/Picture+Neil+Greet+2018.jpg IIER-Australia About - Neil Greet https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592707749325-IAFCQQ4RUPHSNL9746ZR/au_h_Gary_Waters.jpg IIER-Australia About - Gary Waters https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1588201997454-H5OJANNH1NEAYV1T5UNC/Screen+Shot+2020-04-30+at+9.12.37+am.png IIER-Australia About https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1588203289471-0N36IYIF4JSGCKMDHSHX/Screen+Shot+2020-04-30+at+9.32.48+am.png IIER-Australia About https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592097307226-86OQIF5BJRVVLY8HR8G8/Screen+Shot+2020-06-14+at+11.06.03+am.png IIER-Australia About https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592096457559-0N2KMVUENVWVBNQDV5RX/Screen+Shot+2020-06-14+at+11.00.41+am.png IIER-Australia About https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592095603214-254ZZ0WR0RGCXQW5JEML/Screen+Shot+2020-06-14+at+10.46.01+am.png IIER-Australia About https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592096317743-RCIUBXVEG6GGJ6UBS5ZA/Screen+Shot+2020-06-14+at+10.51.46+am.png IIER-Australia About https://www.jbcs.co/iieraustralia-projects daily 0.75 2023-07-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1587256976960-E12615XBR0Q4UQQ405JV/Screen+Shot+2020-04-19+at+10.42.12+am.png IIER-Australia Projects https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592636836833-EYR0KTATDNOBUJ46QQB9/Slide4.png IIER-Australia Projects https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1633306331999-LEMW4SU0KRJOT1U8LW5A/Screen+Shot+2021-10-04+at+11.11.39+am.png IIER-Australia Projects - Australia – A Complacent Nation: Our reactions are too little, too late, and too short-sighted In 2021 Australians are faced with concurrent, and in some cases existential, challenges. These include climate change and the urgent need to reduce emissions, growing global and regional security risks, a global pandemic which will have persistent societal and economic impacts, a global energy transformation where we are lagging the developed world, and a global market model that has resulted in reduced resilience, as evidenced in the face of recent crises. We are living in a time of shared tragedy; we need to refocus our efforts to build societal consensus and trust to enable the collective action necessary to prepare and to adapt to the reality of our changing world. We need leadership from all aspects of Australian society but particularly our most powerful leaders in business, government, and politics. The cost of inaction is much greater. We have seen courageous political and business leadership in the past; we need to find that again to deal with the future. We, the Australian people, need to act and to demand more of our socio-political system, and of ourselves. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1633306267089-BUEHRP7ML4H5B5UYDKKP/Screen+Shot+2021-10-04+at+11.10.42+am.png IIER-Australia Projects - Australia’s Poor Energy Systems Resilience The topic of energy has become so politicised in Australia, both between the major parties and within the Liberal / National Coalition Government, that our national interest and security has been subsumed by both party and personal interests. This report explores the need for an energy strategy and plan for Australia; one that should be coordinated / correlated with strategies for national security and resilience, economy, environment, industry, and research. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1632795153970-RCVY475NNLB5TQ9N1D9T/Screen+Shot+2021-09-28+at+12.12.03+pm.png IIER-Australia Projects - Australia’s Economic Resilience The economic dimension of national power and influence is central to the hard choices to be made on strategic policy. Currently, Australia's strategic decision making is not configured to integrate security and economic considerations in a way that delivers these twin objectives. Australia needs a strategic, forward-looking, and outcome-based plan for its economic security that is integrated with the other elements of national security under a National Security and Resilience Strategy (which we do not currently have.) . https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1631859976375-SCKUTJJN5RDOESK2DNHH/Screen+Shot+2021-09-17+at+4.25.53+pm.png IIER-Australia Projects - First Responders and Defence in Australia - Resilience in the Face of Climate Change The strength of a safety net is directly proportional to the ability of each of its parts to absorb their share of any stress imposed upon the net within its intended limit. While essential elements of our nation’s response, First Responders and Defence are a finite resource whose extended involvement masks our nation’s resilience1 and ability to preserve and restore essential basic structures and functions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1626218787353-1ARBN5MP89MPXL6AO9CY/Screen+Shot+2021-07-14+at+9.26.01+am.png IIER-Australia Projects - A National Resilience Framework for Australia We live in an historic moment of turmoil with a climate and biodiversity emergency threatening the planet, an energy transition underway and the pandemic continuing to spread globally. This report addresses the need for a National Resilience Framework for Australia. It examines the current situation, our society’s vulnerabilities, gaps and assumptions, leadership challenges, culture and national narrative barriers, and future requirements. It concludes with recommendations to develop a resilience strategy and resilience actions that will underpin a future, broader, Australian national resilience framework. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1624506107968-E6E40Z5BM5B9AOHOFR3B/Screen+Shot+2021-06-24+at+1.40.40+pm.png IIER-Australia Projects - AUSTRALIA’S SOVEREIGN INDUSTRY CAPABILITY The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed long-term deficiencies in Australia’s domestic productive capacity and that a reliance on overseas supply chains left the nation vulnerable to a range of future political, economic and environmental contingencies. The report calls for a broad investigation of Australia’s manufacturing base to highlight areas of sovereign importance which could be strengthened and expanded through a range of government measures. This approach, which has already been embraced to some degree in the 2020-21 Federal Budget, could also generate a range of employment and environmental benefits, as well as support resilience efforts in human resources, social cohesion, disaster planning and other key sectors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1607992787610-8FTWT0IGGTRVYNW0DQZL/Screen+Shot+2020-12-15+at+11.39.30+am.png IIER-Australia Projects - The Australian Healthcare System - ‘just in time’ or ‘just in case’? The Coronavirus pandemic has exposed a global lack of resilience as a result of a collective failure to assess and act on national risks and vulnerabilities in the face of a rapidly changing world. Australians have reacted very well to the pandemic; but were we adequately prepared for this or a range of other significant risks that have either already manifested or could still eventuate? The pandemic has brought into sharp relief the inadequacies of Australia’s healthcare system in the broadest sense. The professionalism of our health practitioners has been extraordinary; however, the problem does not lie with them. Rather the ‘health system’ has been found wanting. The “just in time” free market philosophy may have resulted in cost efficiencies, but it has also resulted in significant erosion of healthcare systems resilience as our nation gradually lost manufacturing capacity to the point where we now import more than 90% of our medicines and virtually all of our Personal Protective Equipment, whilst at the same time having no stockholding mandates. Lower cost can come at a very high price in a crisis. Our politicians have rightly applauded our nation’s health workers outstanding performance and dedication to their duties throughout the pandemic. However, plaudits are not enough. We, as a society, owe it to our healthcare professionals to do whatever it takes to enable and empower them to do their jobs, to ensure our healthcare system is genuinely resilient. The health and wellbeing of all Australians, and therefore the security of our nation, depend on it. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/ef28b936-4727-4b1b-a429-9d37ff2291c1/Health+Report+2022+Cover.jpg IIER-Australia Projects - The Australian Health System in 2022 - Update to 2020 Report above What has changed in the last two years … what do we need to do differently? We have experienced health worker exhaustion, medicine shortages, supply chain disruptions, loss of domestic manufacturing capability, tribalism and cultural impediments to teamwork and Federal versus State governance disconnects. The 2022 reality being faced by our new Health Minister must be overwhelming. In the absence of a comprehensive inquiry into our handling of the pandemic, there appear to be few lessons identified, fewer acted upon and even less actually learned. Thankfully, the new Labor Government has committed to such a review. To help produce a “snapshot” of our health system over the year we gathered 21 health domain experts and asked them about their current concerns. The challenge does not seem to be defining ‘what’ needs to be done, but rather defining ‘how’ it needs to be done, prioritised, and actioned as an overall system. There is still no apparent integrated risk analysis, health system strategy and plan that could guide an integrated health system roadmap. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1614032853983-MRBI3QMK5WPR07YXPXG3/Screen+Shot+2021-02-23+at+9.27.22+am.png IIER-Australia Projects - Enhancing public sector policy capability for a COVID world The public service is a core social institution whose foundations, purpose and performance need to be rescued and restated and, as a result, better protected into an uncertain future to which it will be an inescapably central part of any effective response. The pandemic has brought out the best of the public service which has performed for the most part above expectations and to very high standards, though with high-profile exceptions. However, the policy capability of the public service has reached dangerously low levels and needs to be rapidly and purposefully rebuilt. The odds of the current generation of politicians accepting that as a legitimate and high priority for their time, attention and spending are low, which is a big risk in itself. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1600060699815-P206KYI1RP0N785O03ZF/Screen+Shot+2020-09-14+at+3.17.50+pm.png IIER-Australia Projects - Protecting Australia’s Sovereign Research Capability in a COVID World The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the extent to which Australia’s sovereign research capability is vulnerable to a significant downturn in demand for higher education from international students, putting at risk Australia’s hard-won international reputation for high- quality research and the substantial benefits that it produces. The future of Australia’s world-class university research sector is now precarious due to the loss of international student revenue and will take many years to recover. Our response to this needs to take account of this new reality. This paper has attempted to identify a range of structural problems with the current system which have less visible in the era of ever-growing international student revenues. Just as Australia once lived “off the sheep’s back”, our university research sector has been living off international students. They are gone now and they won’t be back anytime soon. The need to address these structural issues is now urgent. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1614109529763-KZTK6XQLW79KOUDKTWII/Screen+Shot+2021-02-24+at+6.45.04+am.png IIER-Australia Projects - Trust, Social Cohesion and Resilience: A Conversation- Starter for Australia This report focusses on trust and social cohesion as vital foundations for resilience, how these are in danger of being eroded, and how they can be protected and enhanced. Australia is at critical point of change, a potential ‘tipping point’. Covid-19 has highlighted vulnerabilities and inequities as well as raising questions about what sustains or damages resilience. Trust has been falling, social cohesion is under threat, the basis for resilience may erode rapidly unless we act purposefully. Australia is not alone in this regard. Some trends are world-wide, linked to long term change. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1fb43b21-d0bf-43f9-a603-f5a270c28e28/Screen+Shot+2021-12-11+at+2.36.34+pm.png IIER-Australia Projects - National Resilience is a National Security Issue Presentation to the Alaska World Affairs Council - 11 Dec 21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1599960200133-VOEQLNR6TDO6YXU48F9H/Presentation1.jpg IIER-Australia Projects - Submission to the Parliament of Australia, Joint Standing Committee Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade, Inquiry into the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for Australia’s foreign affairs, defence and trade, June 2020 The Coronavirus pandemic has exposed a global lack of resilience as a result of a collective failure to assess and act on national risks and vulnerabilities in the face of a rapidly changing world. We should not try to replicate the pre-COVID-19 Australia in the recovery. We need to capitalise on the positive aspects of our response, such as the social solidarity and the Federal / State political collaboration displayed in Australia, and learn from the negative, such as the fragility and opaque nature of our supply chains and the lack of preparation in critical areas such as in our health infrastructure and parts of our economy. We need to redesign critical components of our supply chains under what we are calling a ‘Smart Sovereignty’ model. The essential complement to Smart Sovereignty is the establishment of “Trusted Supply Chains.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1599960480697-PWZ3PFIIX6OJTCQBGL4Q/Presentation1.jpg IIER-Australia Projects - Trade without Trust - Submission to the Parliament of Australia, Joint Standing Committee on Trade and Investment Growth Inquiry into Diversifying Australia’s Trade and Investment Profile, September 2020 Over the past decade we have seen our trade and investment profile evolve without any apparent system-wide analysis of resulting risks and vulnerabilities. In pursuit of the lowest cost we are incurring a very high price in terms of our sovereignty and resilience; one which we are yet to fully understand. We have, in effect, left our resilience, and therefore our sovereignty and security, to the largely foreign-owned market. A market in which we do not trust many of the nations we trade with today. If we are to maintain an acceptable balance between our sovereignty, security and economic wellbeing, then we must recognise firstly that economic over-dependence on any one country in terms of exports or imports is a risk to our sovereignty and security. Secondly, the behaviours of a number of countries during the early stages of the pandemic, means that our blind faith in the largely foreign-owned market to meet all of our needs in a crisis, without taking precautionary measures such as stockholding, is foolhardy. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1599961878431-F4Q03JZKH3WSGJ6JQMQ1/Presentation1.jpg IIER-Australia Projects - MARITIME TRADE DEPENDENCIES AND RISKS - A National Security Issue This October 2019 paper was also submitted to the Parliament of Australia, Joint Standing Committee on Trade and Investment Growth Inquiry into Diversifying Australia’s Trade and Investment Profile, in September 2020. At the heart of a National Security Strategy, there should be a Maritime Trade Strategy. Today, in Australia, neither exist. This Article summarises the presentation made to the Australian Naval Institute Goldrick Seminar in Oct 19. It discusses some of the issues that could be considered in such a risk assessment. These include intentional interruption of trade, collateral damage from events such as an economic crisis leading to a failure of credit, natural disasters and climate change and PANDEMICS. Who would have thought ? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1600330078181-24TIYTDT0QAF006JR4F0/Screen+Shot+2020-09-17+at+6.07.35+pm.png IIER-Australia Projects - Pearcey Oration September 2020 - How do we Address our Resilience and Preparedness in this Age of Mistrust. The presentation commences at the 18 minute mark in the You tube link below. It discusses the resilience issues being explored in the National Resilience Project and how the ICT sector can be a key part of addressing our resilience issues. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1601167061457-Q56YMR11UOQYCU5GGNZA/Screen+Shot+2020-09-20+at+1.40.11+pm.png IIER-Australia Projects - Australian Institute of International Affairs July 2020 A presentation on Australia’s National Resilience https://www.jbcs.co/iieraustralia-publications-1 daily 0.75 2020-12-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1587256976960-E12615XBR0Q4UQQ405JV/Screen+Shot+2020-04-19+at+10.42.12+am.png IIER-Australia Publications https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592636694324-7IOB5L8U8UVZEKJXS182/Slide2.png IIER-Australia Publications - IIER- Publications All publications can be viewed on this page. For specific topics, refer to the main index page https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1608080920762-RGH8LYLCLZLLYCKF99LO/Screen+Shot+2020-12-15+at+11.46.01+am.png IIER-Australia Publications - The Australian Healthcare System - ‘just in time’ or ‘just in case’? The Coronavirus pandemic has exposed a global lack of resilience as a result of a collective failure to assess and act on national risks and vulnerabilities in the face of a rapidly changing world. Australians have reacted very well to the pandemic; but were we adequately prepared for this or a range of other significant risks that have either already manifested or could still eventuate? The pandemic has brought into sharp relief the inadequacies of Australia’s healthcare system in the broadest sense. The professionalism of our health practitioners has been extraordinary; however, the problem does not lie with them. Rather the ‘health system’ has been found wanting. The “just in time” free market philosophy may have resulted in cost efficiencies, but it has also resulted in significant erosion of healthcare systems resilience as our nation gradually lost manufacturing capacity to the point where we now import more than 90% of our medicines and virtually all of our Personal Protective Equipment, whilst at the same time having no stockholding mandates. Lower cost can come at a very high price in a crisis. Our politicians have rightly applauded our nation’s health workers outstanding performance and dedication to their duties throughout the pandemic. However, plaudits are not enough. We, as a society, owe it to our healthcare professionals to do whatever it takes to enable and empower them to do their jobs, to ensure our healthcare system is genuinely resilient. The health and wellbeing of all Australians, and therefore the security of our nation, depend on it. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1587884891009-G2QEXSKNBZ0ZHSI4I1V2/Screen+Shot+2020-04-26+at+5.07.55+pm.png IIER-Australia Publications - Smart Sovereignty & Trusted Supply Chains - A National Sovereignty / Resilience Imperative. We had the opportunity to present the attached brief to the Australian Joint Parliamentary Committee for Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade on 22 April 2020. Key points included: The Coronavirus pandemic has exposed a global lack of resilience as a result of a collective failure to assess and act on national risks and vulnerabilities in the face of a rapidly changing world. Global trade and diverse supply chains are essential and will remain the predominant model into the future. However, we need to redesign critical components of our supply chains using the “Smart Sovereignty” model described in the brief. The complement to Smart Sovereignty is “Trusted Supply Chains.” Where we depend on global trade imports, we must have diverse and transparent supply chains and have the ability to verify them. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1585529978708-ASOJSD01WF75QZVZ5NUW/Screen+Shot+2020-03-30+at+11.59.05+am.png IIER-Australia Publications - Shortages of personal protective equipment, medical devices, and medicines – what’s happening in Australia? The COVID-19 pandemic has seen a significant increase in public discussion about medical supply chains in general, and Australia’s exposure to shortages of critical medical items because we are at the end of a long and complex global supply network. The Australian National Strategic Stockpile of medicines and personal protective equipment (referred to as PPE) has also been in the headlines. Unfortunately, the shortages of critical PPE for frontline healthcare workers would suggest that the National Strategic Stockpile is falling well short of the need … The scrambling by the Government, and indeed a number of not-for-profits, to procure PPE (especially masks) from whoever and wherever they can, should be a lesson for those responsible for the future stocking of the stockpile. What could Australia do differently to be ready when, not if, the next pandemic strikes? And it is very unlikely we will be waiting 50 or 100 years for it to occur. As the financial advisors say - past performance is not a guarantee of future results ... https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1581814523697-IF7ZVPRKSLKGBF60M496/Screen+Shot+2020-02-16+at+11.54.43+am.png IIER-Australia Publications - AUSTRALIA’S MEDICINE SUPPLY - is our Health a National Security / Resilience Issue ? Australia imports over 90% of medicines and is at the end of a very long global supply chain making the nation vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. The TGA has acknowledged these supply chain risks when they report that at times there may not be enough of a specific medicine in the Australian marketplace, leading to potential weaknesses in supply. Australia is particularly vulnerable to medicine shortages arising from factors outside our control. These factors can include manufacturing problems, difficulties in procurement, political instability, pandemics, another global economic crisis and a range of natural disasters. The current Coronavirus emergency is an example of this. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1586065996981-QPMTSA0B1LZHVW3AV8UZ/Screen+Shot+2020-04-05+at+3.52.58+pm.png IIER-Australia Publications - MARITIME TRADE DEPENDENCIES AND RISKS - A National Security Issue At the heart of a National Security Strategy, there should be a Maritime Trade Strategy. Today, in Australia, neither exist. This Article summarises the presentation made to the Australian Naval Institute Goldrick Seminar in Oct 19. It discusses some of the issues that could be considered in such a risk assessment. These include intentional interruption of trade, collateral damage from events such as an economic crisis leading to a failure of credit, natural disasters and climate change and PANDEMICS. Who would have thought ? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592703357265-RDN1M09ZMM8G20ODDPF8/Screen+Shot+2020-06-21+at+11.35.25+am.png IIER-Australia Publications - Australia’s Economic Security: Is there a problem? What is the risk for our National Security and Defence Capability? Published in the Australian Defence Magazine, February 2019. Financial and economic indicators that signal the start of a downturn are evident in advanced economies. Australia is at particular risk with households currently the second most indebted in the world and with a total private sector debt ratio of 205% of GDP. We are facing a serious economic security challenge; however, most Australians (including many of our politicians) do not appear to appreciate that economic security is the foundation of our national security. We cannot rely on past economic performance and assume that we will have the resilience to address the significant economic risks in the decade ahead. Australians need to face an unpleasant reality and take appropriate action. We need a National Security Strategy that integrates all aspects of national power. An economic security plan should be an integral part of such a strategy. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592703597378-TIF7XDU07RQ3FX0XU0K0/Screen+Shot+2020-06-21+at+11.39.11+am.png IIER-Australia Publications - Energy Security - Is there a problem? Published in the Australian Defence Magazine, September 2018. Unfortunately the topic of energy has become so politicised, both between the major parties and within the Liberal party, that the national interest has been subsumed by both party and personal interests. The reality is that energy security, like national security, can only be addressed with consistent bipartisan political support. Whilst Australia is endowed with natural resources, energy security risks across several sectors have increased. Despite this, the Government does not seem to think we have a problem. Unfortunately, energy security is about much more than just a more “reliable” and cheaper electricity supply. It is about our security as a nation, it is about protecting our society and our way of life and, as such, it is a very complex issue. There are are significant issues with our energy systems that should concern us all; unfortunately, the analysis of our energy security and resilience is inadequate and the management of energy security has been outsourced to the market. The idea that we are at peace and “business as usual” is the appropriate model where the markets can manage all aspects of our critical infrastructure and supply chains is clearly out of date. Energy security is a vital component of national security and an increased level of Government control / leadership with respect to energy security is warranted. The discussion of these issues is not just for our politicians; it is our collective responsibility to discuss these issues and to tell our politicians what we need to have done and not wait to just complain after our energy systems fail. We need a National Security Strategy that integrates all aspects of national power. An energy security plan should be an integral part of such a strategy. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592703961732-3COOQDP714KU68W9K8FL/Screen+Shot+2020-06-21+at+11.45.14+am.png IIER-Australia Publications - Are our Assumptions about Climate Change and Environmental Degradation a risk to National Security? Today we are confronted by global environmental degradation and climate change, occurring at an unprecedented scale and speed; with cascading and ramifying risks transferred to infrastructure, energy systems and the global economy. At this scale climate change impacts at every level of our military and national security systems. Yet, while the interlinking of climate and environment with national security is recognised, it is still seen as a driver that attracts only secondary or tertiary importance. This article is the third of the opening series by the Institute of Integrated Economics Research (IIER) - Australia, and completes the trilogy of economics, energy and environment framed within a national security perspective. This article was published in the June 2019 issue of the Australian Defence Magazine https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592704219267-0ADSYLEOHAHWUQ1Y0HI4/Screen+Shot+2020-06-21+at+11.49.54+am.png IIER-Australia Publications - The Gray Zone is Not Just an Away Game: We Are In Risk of “Losing Without Fighting” Dr Robbin Laird’s interview of John Blackburn, Defense.info on 17 November 2019 Whilst many Defence writers proclaim the aim of “winning without fighting,” we are much more likely to end up “losing without fighting” if we do not get serious about our supply chain vulnerabilities and related issues. The critical issue that Australians need to consider is what components of critical supply chains are owned or controlled by authoritarian powers. This clearly means that there is a need for a much broader security concept than simply preparing for high end kinetic warfare or engaging at distance from our nations in “gray zone areas.” Trade and manufacturing vulnerabilities in our societies are reshaping the liberal democracies to be the “gray zones” when it comes to being vulnerable to deliberate disruptions in times of crisis. We need to stop congratulating ourselves for acquiring the latest 5th Gen platform and understand that our security cannot be guaranteed merely by pledging to expend 2% of our GDP on Defence. We need a comprehensive National Security Strategy that acknowledges the world has changes. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592704360337-YF6C1IT4MS3D0DEIG4C6/Screen+Shot+2020-06-21+at+11.52.03+am.png IIER-Australia Publications - Re-Thinking Australia’s National Security Strategy – Lessons from the 1930s for the 2030s Anne Borzycki’s article published in Defense.info on 4 December 2019 During the 1920s the rise of Japan was preoccupying the national security discussions within the Australian Government. What role would Britain play in the Asia-Pacific region? Interestingly, these same issues and challenges are being discussed today in Australia: simply replace China for Japan, and the US for Britain. By the 1930s the situation in Europe, and events unfolding in Asia (particularly Japan’s seizure of Manchuria), triggered a step-up in the rhetoric and policy considerations about Australia’s national security. The public debate involved not only the political leadership of the time, but intellectuals and businessmen. A notable businessman of the era who contributed significantly to Australia’s capacity to prepare for the coming conflict was Essington Lewis, the managing director of BHP. He urged the government and industry to prepare for war and he also took action himself: establishing large stockpiles of raw materials, co-founding the Commonwealth Aircraft Corporation and establishing munitions annexes at the steelworks. How many business leaders today would have the foresight of Lewis and then take the lead in driving a national security agenda? It is unfortunate that the whole-of-government approach so effectively employed during the Second World War, is not a feature of Australian government planning in 2019. How can the Australian government understand and manage the interconnected elements of national security (for example the economy, infrastructure, industry, maritime trade, energy, environment, defence) without a whole-of-government approach? This whole-of-government approach should be integrated under a national security strategy. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592705224302-24X83AV9VJS6CF5K1DIO/Screen+Shot+2020-06-21+at+12.06.41+pm.png IIER-Australia Publications - National Hydrogen Strategy Discussion Paper Response This paper was submitted by the IIER-Australia in response to the invitation to respond to the COAG energy Council National Hydrogen Strategy Discussion Paper in April 2019. It concludes that Hydrogen can contribute to Australia’s national security by providing an alternative energy source that is domestically generated, Australian-owned, economically beneficial, environmentally sound if supported by policy that takes energy security seriously. Developing the policies to deliver the National Hydrogen Strategy must occur within the framework of national security and be implemented under an integrated system level design. https://www.jbcs.co/iieraustralia-media daily 0.75 2025-12-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1587256976960-E12615XBR0Q4UQQ405JV/Screen+Shot+2020-04-19+at+10.42.12+am.png IIER-Australia Media https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592637123904-3ECWJTB6P068594PQPN9/Slide3.png IIER-Australia Media https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1619602866399-7BWAHB3SLSCJG8M1WSC2/Screen+Shot+2021-04-28+at+7.40.37+pm.png IIER-Australia Media - Climate Security Threat, Former Defence Leaders Sound Alarm 23 April 2021 MilSec TV interview with John Blackburn https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1602724943423-L65H7TMAIVNHNNIGVUPF/Screen+Shot+2020-10-15+at+12.21.47+pm.png IIER-Australia Media - Governments not fit for purpose in today’s complex world 15 October 2020 Business Now Asia Pacific interview with IIER-A Chair John Blackburn https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1600573239290-2Y3LE7N2YXLQZ1SCDW2Y/Screen+Shot+2020-09-20+at+1.40.19+pm.png IIER-Australia Media - Australian Institute of International Affairs July 2020 A presentation on Australia’s National Resilience https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1599011776520-9O1MZZMINVVBKU8T415E/Screen+Shot+2020-09-02+at+11.56.00+am.png IIER-Australia Media - Doing Disasters Differently: The Podcast Aug 20 Episode #5: Changing the disaster language to “our preparedness and resilience” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1595651301026-J6GSYS7L7GKJDMHZKYGO/Screen+Shot+2020-07-25+at+2.28.10+pm.png IIER-Australia Media - Australian Defence Magazine Podcast July 2020 - National Resilience Senator David Fawcett, Chair of the Parliamentary Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence & Trade and John Blackburn, Chair IIER-A, are interviewed by ADM’s Managing Editor Katherine Ziesing and Grant McHerron. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1594358601491-ORWYMDKR88PSL2SHYSIZ/Screen+Shot+2020-07-10+at+3.22.23+pm.png IIER-Australia Media - Australia’s National Resilience 8 July 2020 Business Now Asia Pacific interview with IIER-A Chair John Blackburn https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1588483880145-IAUGJLL1H4DY080L4IJY/IMG_0889.jpeg IIER-Australia Media - Dare to Prepare Ch 7 Weekend Sunrise Program interview on 3 May 20 regarding Australia’s supply chain vulnerabilities and the need for “Smart Sovereignty.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1588202244680-9MJYIGIXO4UULD6DRVTV/Screen+Shot+2020-04-30+at+9.17.03+am.png IIER-Australia Media - Confidential report predicted how long it would take for essential services to break down during a major crisis The 26 Apr 20 ABC 7:30 Report featuring IIER-A Fellow Cheryl Durrant and Chair John Blackburn. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1588322619347-5O1Q8ONKFDOX6Y44ZCV2/Screen+Shot+2020-05-01+at+6.42.26+pm.png IIER-Australia Media - COVID-19 Warnings Ignored? Channel 9 Today Show 29 Apr 20 - "When you write about these things in times when you're not in a crisis, people aren't really that interested." https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592706373913-PR8ZW51F1QXM1W8EP9SI/Screen+Shot+2020-06-21+at+12.25.48+pm.png IIER-Australia Media - Over reliance on China 'must never happen again' Sky News Report : This news segment highlights the Institute’s “Australia’s Medicine Supply Chain” Report. Click on the image at left to view https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1588202483326-MKQGJL4QS2KLR6OTHCOE/Screen+Shot+2020-04-30+at+9.20.55+am.png IIER-Australia Media - Think of coronavirus as a test run: Australian military leaders warn we must prepare for worse As Australia was swept by panic buying and medical shortages this year, the scenes were eerily familiar for one of the country's most senior military planners … this is the 27 Apr 20 ABC online article featuring IIER-A Fellow Cheryl Durrant and Chair John Blackburn. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1583127320193-IGS5SC7TSO2DFYKCFTA4/John_Blackburn_AO_9a82.jpg IIER-Australia Media - Defence Connect Podcast - INSIGHT: National resilience – John Blackburn AO, Institute for Integrated Economic Research – Australia On this inaugural episode of Defence Connect Insight Podcast, hosts Phil Tarrant and Steve Kuper are joined by John Blackburn to delve into the complex and somewhat controversial subject of Australia’s national resilience. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1555287789534-JKZF88M9A0332E4GOS48/Screen+Shot+2019-04-15+at+10.22.38+am.png IIER-Australia Media - John Blackburn’s Interview with Dr Robbin Laird- April 2019 The interview discusses an example of a common problem in Australia – a lack of systems thinking in the Government. The current energy focus is on exports and export earnings at the cost of domestic security and domestic cost of energy supplies. Blackburn argues that if you take a broader view, we could consider how different energy supplies / systems could be integrated under a comprehensive strategy which would enable exports but within an approach that was based first upon domestic costs and supply considerations and national security. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1571989440859-0BVBGGSI1R2431ASGCO8/Screen+Shot+2019-10-25+at+6.42.51+pm.png IIER-Australia Media - Understanding Disaster Resilience - Climate Change A short video for the Emergency Management Australia Disaster Resilence Workshops https://www.jbcs.co/iieraustralia-health daily 0.75 2022-10-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1587256976960-E12615XBR0Q4UQQ405JV/Screen+Shot+2020-04-19+at+10.42.12+am.png IIER-Australia Health https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592637569789-CJW4ZPSJEPQTWVPDTSF3/Presentation1.png IIER-Australia Health https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/bb7178c0-aca2-45d7-94a3-49531cd99613/Health+Report+2022+Cover.jpg IIER-Australia Health - The Australian Health System in 2022 What has changed in the last two years … what do we need to do differently? We have experienced health worker exhaustion, medicine shortages, supply chain disruptions, loss of domestic manufacturing capability, tribalism and cultural impediments to teamwork and Federal versus State governance disconnects. The 2022 reality being faced by our new Health Minister must be overwhelming. In the absence of a comprehensive inquiry into our handling of the pandemic, there appear to be few lessons identified, fewer acted upon and even less actually learned. Thankfully, the new Labor Government has committed to such a review. To help produce a “snapshot” of our health system over the year we gathered 21 health domain experts and asked them about their current concerns. The challenge does not seem to be defining ‘what’ needs to be done, but rather defining ‘how’ it needs to be done, prioritised, and actioned as an overall system. There is still no apparent integrated risk analysis, health system strategy and plan that could guide an integrated health system roadmap. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1619476610814-YPIZKL9QWG2G3XWFFV59/Screen+Shot+2021-04-27+at+8.33.22+am.png IIER-Australia Health - We are failing to prepare for the emerging risks of Coronavirus variants in 2022/23 The Federal Government needs to address emerging challenges such as the need for annual COVID-19 boosters, dealing with COVID-19 variants, and the potential diminution of effectiveness of the current vaccines and the next pandemic. It needs to support mRNA research and manufacturing in Australia if we are to have a resilient sovereign capability. It needs to act now. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1607993264857-M2FS7H1LMI8AIBXU5XFS/Screen+Shot+2020-12-15+at+11.46.01+am.png IIER-Australia Health - The Australian Healthcare System - ‘just in time’ or ‘just in case’? The Coronavirus pandemic has exposed a global lack of resilience as a result of a collective failure to assess and act on national risks and vulnerabilities in the face of a rapidly changing world. Australians have reacted very well to the pandemic; but were we adequately prepared for this or a range of other significant risks that have either already manifested or could still eventuate? The pandemic has brought into sharp relief the inadequacies of Australia’s healthcare system in the broadest sense. The professionalism of our health practitioners has been extraordinary; however, the problem does not lie with them. Rather the ‘health system’ has been found wanting. The “just in time” free market philosophy may have resulted in cost efficiencies, but it has also resulted in significant erosion of healthcare systems resilience as our nation gradually lost manufacturing capacity to the point where we now import more than 90% of our medicines and virtually all of our Personal Protective Equipment, whilst at the same time having no stockholding mandates. Lower cost can come at a very high price in a crisis. Our politicians have rightly applauded our nation’s health workers outstanding performance and dedication to their duties throughout the pandemic. However, plaudits are not enough. We, as a society, owe it to our healthcare professionals to do whatever it takes to enable and empower them to do their jobs, to ensure our healthcare system is genuinely resilient. The health and wellbeing of all Australians, and therefore the security of our nation, depend on it. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592704583001-BSJA3CN0XNG06KQ096SV/Screen+Shot+2020-06-21+at+11.55.52+am.png IIER-Australia Health - AUSTRALIA’S MEDICINE SUPPLY - is our Health a National Security / Resilience Issue ? Australia imports over 90% of medicines and is at the end of a very long global supply chain making the nation vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. The TGA has acknowledged these supply chain risks when they report that at times there may not be enough of a specific medicine in the Australian marketplace, leading to potential weaknesses in supply. Australia is particularly vulnerable to medicine shortages arising from factors outside our control. These factors can include manufacturing problems, difficulties in procurement, political instability, pandemics, another global economic crisis and a range of natural disasters. The current Coronavirus emergency is an example of this. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1571979387060-VKAOFOXH40H5I18SGCTS/Screen+Shot+2019-10-25+at+3.52.37+pm.png IIER-Australia Health - Dr Simon Quilty’s Article on Australia’s Drug Supply Chain Risks Australia’s supply chain for the entire range of healthcare products is incredibly complex. There are, of course, national and international regulatory frameworks to ensure quality and ongoing supply. However, these were set up more than three decades ago. Are they still fit for purpose? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592704668173-QWVOUWWOBYY2N8NZ25IM/Screen+Shot+2020-06-21+at+11.57.31+am.png IIER-Australia Health - Shortages of personal protective equipment, medical devices, and medicines – what’s happening in Australia? The COVID-19 pandemic has seen a significant increase in public discussion about medical supply chains in general, and Australia’s exposure to shortages of critical medical items because we are at the end of a long and complex global supply network. The Australian National Strategic Stockpile of medicines and personal protective equipment (referred to as PPE) has also been in the headlines. Unfortunately, the shortages of critical PPE for frontline healthcare workers would suggest that the National Strategic Stockpile is falling well short of the need … The scrambling by the Government, and indeed a number of not-for-profits, to procure PPE (especially masks) from whoever and wherever they can, should be a lesson for those responsible for the future stocking of the stockpile. What could Australia do differently to be ready when, not if, the next pandemic strikes? And it is very unlikely we will be waiting 50 or 100 years for it to occur. As the financial advisors say - past performance is not a guarantee of future results ... https://www.jbcs.co/iieraustralia-national-security daily 0.75 2020-07-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1587256976960-E12615XBR0Q4UQQ405JV/Screen+Shot+2020-04-19+at+10.42.12+am.png IIER-Australia National Security https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592806920359-KO9R43I2DENU9CCVJ4MG/IIER+Icons+JSF.png IIER-Australia National Security https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592704841586-E1YS99RC5MHBT8WTYF1W/Screen+Shot+2020-06-21+at+12.00.20+pm.png IIER-Australia National Security - Smart Sovereignty & Trusted Supply Chains - A National Sovereignty / Resilience Imperative. We had the opportunity to present the attached brief to the Australian Joint Parliamentary Committee for Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade on 22 April 2020. Key points included: The Coronavirus pandemic has exposed a global lack of resilience as a result of a collective failure to assess and act on national risks and vulnerabilities in the face of a rapidly changing world. Global trade and diverse supply chains are essential and will remain the predominant model into the future. However, we need to redesign critical components of our supply chains using the “Smart Sovereignty” model described in the brief. The complement to Smart Sovereignty is “Trusted Supply Chains.” Where we depend on global trade imports, we must have diverse and transparent supply chains and have the ability to verify them. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1576987132239-5RB6TH386IAXCJGAE397/Screen+Shot+2019-12-22+at+2.58.36+pm.png IIER-Australia National Security - The Gray Zone is Not Just an Away Game: We Are In Risk of “Losing Without Fighting” Dr Robbin Laird’s interview of John Blackburn, Defense.info on 17 November 2019 Whilst many Defence writers proclaim the aim of “winning without fighting,” we are much more likely to end up “losing without fighting” if we do not get serious about our supply chain vulnerabilities and related issues. The critical issue that Australians need to consider is what components of critical supply chains are owned or controlled by authoritarian powers. This clearly means that there is a need for a much broader security concept than simply preparing for high end kinetic warfare or engaging at distance from our nations in “gray zone areas.” Trade and manufacturing vulnerabilities in our societies are reshaping the liberal democracies to be the “gray zones” when it comes to being vulnerable to deliberate disruptions in times of crisis. We need to stop congratulating ourselves for acquiring the latest 5th Gen platform and understand that our security cannot be guaranteed merely by pledging to expend 2% of our GDP on Defence. We need a comprehensive National Security Strategy that acknowledges the world has changes. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1576986340087-06XEC0518WWZQIEVNL9L/Screen+Shot+2019-12-22+at+2.45.24+pm.png IIER-Australia National Security - Re-Thinking Australia’s National Security Strategy – Lessons from the 1930s for the 2030s Published on Defense.info on 4 December 2019 During the 1920s the rise of Japan was preoccupying the national security discussions within the Australian Government. What role would Britain play in the Asia-Pacific region? Interestingly, these same issues and challenges are being discussed today in Australia: simply replace China for Japan, and the US for Britain. By the 1930s the situation in Europe, and events unfolding in Asia (particularly Japan’s seizure of Manchuria), triggered a step-up in the rhetoric and policy considerations about Australia’s national security. The public debate involved not only the political leadership of the time, but intellectuals and businessmen. A notable businessman of the era who contributed significantly to Australia’s capacity to prepare for the coming conflict was Essington Lewis, the managing director of BHP. He urged the government and industry to prepare for war and he also took action himself: establishing large stockpiles of raw materials, co-founding the Commonwealth Aircraft Corporation and establishing munitions annexes at the steelworks. How many business leaders today would have the foresight of Lewis and then take the lead in driving a national security agenda? It is unfortunate that the whole-of-government approach so effectively employed during the Second World War, is not a feature of Australian government planning in 2019. How can the Australian government understand and manage the interconnected elements of national security (for example the economy, infrastructure, industry, maritime trade, energy, environment, defence) without a whole-of-government approach? This whole-of-government approach should be integrated under a national security strategy. https://www.jbcs.co/iier-australia-national-security daily 0.75 2021-10-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1587256976960-E12615XBR0Q4UQQ405JV/Screen+Shot+2020-04-19+at+10.42.12+am.png IIER-Australia Energy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592700164126-PJB7J73P3DQ35TQPIQKI/IIER+Icons+Energy.png IIER-Australia Energy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1633306489709-963ZUA3T3ZW009DA3VHU/Screen+Shot+2021-10-04+at+11.10.42+am.png IIER-Australia Energy - Australia’s Poor Energy Systems Resilience The topic of energy has become so politicised in Australia, both between the major parties and within the Liberal / National Coalition Government, that our national interest and security has been subsumed by both party and personal interests. This report explores the need for an energy strategy and plan for Australia; one that should be coordinated / correlated with strategies for national security and resilience, economy, environment, industry, and research. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1555308338183-MFZAQJB00AM45R2LZGAG/Screen+Shot+2019-04-15+at+4.04.55+pm.png IIER-Australia Energy - Energy Security - Is there a problem? Published in the Australian Defence Magazine, September 2018. Unfortunately the topic of energy has become so politicised, both between the major parties and within the Liberal party, that the national interest has been subsumed by both party and personal interests. The reality is that energy security, like national security, can only be addressed with consistent bipartisan political support. Whilst Australia is endowed with natural resources, energy security risks across several sectors have increased. Despite this, the Government does not seem to think we have a problem. Unfortunately, energy security is about much more than just a more “reliable” and cheaper electricity supply. It is about our security as a nation, it is about protecting our society and our way of life and, as such, it is a very complex issue. There are are significant issues with our energy systems that should concern us all; unfortunately, the analysis of our energy security and resilience is inadequate and the management of energy security has been outsourced to the market. The idea that we are at peace and “business as usual” is the appropriate model where the markets can manage all aspects of our critical infrastructure and supply chains is clearly out of date. Energy security is a vital component of national security and an increased level of Government control / leadership with respect to energy security is warranted. The discussion of these issues is not just for our politicians; it is our collective responsibility to discuss these issues and to tell our politicians what we need to have done and not wait to just complain after our energy systems fail. We need a National Security Strategy that integrates all aspects of national power. An energy security plan should be an integral part of such a strategy. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1554502845965-Z7JEFUSWW0Y09IK3REHX/Screen+Shot+2019-04-06+at+9.20.25+am.png IIER-Australia Energy - National Hydrogen Strategy Discussion Paper Response This paper was submitted by the IIER-Australia in response to the invitation to respond to the COAG energy Council National Hydrogen Strategy Discussion Paper in April 2019. It concludes that Hydrogen can contribute to Australia’s national security by providing an alternative energy source that is domestically generated, Australian-owned, economically beneficial, environmentally sound if supported by policy that takes energy security seriously. Developing the policies to deliver the National Hydrogen Strategy must occur within the framework of national security and be implemented under an integrated system level design. https://www.jbcs.co/iieraustralia-economy daily 0.75 2020-07-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1587256976960-E12615XBR0Q4UQQ405JV/Screen+Shot+2020-04-19+at+10.42.12+am.png IIER-Australia Economy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592700578698-DJ5MGJZF2BM6Y54XVBJ9/IIER+Icons+Economy.png IIER-Australia Economy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1550625997459-XQN9BSDZ7VS774BW46BP/Screen+Shot+2019-02-20+at+12.12.26+pm.png IIER-Australia Economy - Australia’s Economic Security: Is there a problem? What is the risk for our National Security and Defence Capability? Published in the Australian Defence Magazine, February 2019. Financial and economic indicators that signal the start of a downturn are evident in advanced economies. Australia is at particular risk with households currently the second most indebted in the world and with a total private sector debt ratio of 205% of GDP. We are facing a serious economic security challenge; however, most Australians (including many of our politicians) do not appear to appreciate that economic security is the foundation of our national security. We cannot rely on past economic performance and assume that we will have the resilience to address the significant economic risks in the decade ahead. Australians need to face an unpleasant reality and take appropriate action. We need a National Security Strategy that integrates all aspects of national power. An economic security plan should be an integral part of such a strategy. https://www.jbcs.co/iieraustralia-environment daily 0.75 2020-07-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1587256976960-E12615XBR0Q4UQQ405JV/Screen+Shot+2020-04-19+at+10.42.12+am.png IIER-Australia Environment https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592700990236-EZO8M4PMTB0EELX7P1FK/IIER+Icons+Env.png IIER-Australia Environment https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1555294679013-MV425EECB7S37IJPL6E3/Screen+Shot+2019-04-15+at+12.14.44+pm.png IIER-Australia Environment - Are our Assumptions about Climate Change and Environmental Degradation a risk to National Security? Today we are confronted by global environmental degradation and climate change, occurring at an unprecedented scale and speed; with cascading and ramifying risks transferred to infrastructure, energy systems and the global economy. At this scale climate change impacts at every level of our military and national security systems. Yet, while the interlinking of climate and environment with national security is recognised, it is still seen as a driver that attracts only secondary or tertiary importance. This article is the third of the opening series by the Institute of Integrated Economics Research (IIER) - Australia, and completes the trilogy of economics, energy and environment framed within a national security perspective. This article was published in the June 2019 issue of the Australian Defence Magazine https://www.jbcs.co/iieraustralia-europe daily 0.75 2020-07-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1587256976960-E12615XBR0Q4UQQ405JV/Screen+Shot+2020-04-19+at+10.42.12+am.png IIER-Australia EUROPE https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1592701442647-B55H42PIF20OI8I4JAPT/Screen+Shot+2020-06-21+at+11.03.25+am.png IIER-Australia EUROPE - IIER (EUROPE) The Institute for Integrated Economic Research is a non-profit organization based in Europe. It is focused on identifying empirically validated macroeconomic system descriptions and models, and ensuring their dissemination. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1555309228872-S9Q3BTKBAECY36XXKIVU/Screen+Shot+2019-04-15+at+4.19.18+pm.png IIER-Australia EUROPE - In February 2018, Dr Hannes Kunz, President Board of Directors IIER visited Australia and gave this presentation at the Australian National University Macroeconomics has locked into a view based on 250 years of industrialisation to describe an ecologically dangerous future. During the past 8 years new credit has globally grown at the fastest pace in tracked history, with less and less benefit for societies. Total levels are unsustainable and will eventually require a correction. The presentation concludes that: - Markets are fundamentally broken. - Sustainable economic growth is a thing of the past - credit ballooning is a must to keep going - We’re in a 5-15 year “positioning” period for various possible future scenarios - There may be significant market movements (including upsides) during that period. - Nothing is long-term predictable. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1555308447942-A0Q1D2L2NMWOZQNLUM31/Screen+Shot+2019-04-15+at+4.07.01+pm.png IIER-Australia EUROPE - IIER Paper - Revisiting the rules of economics Most economic theories of the late 20th century are based on models built around the assumption of system-inherent growth. Despite still available headline GDP growth, most people in advanced economies are experiencing shrinking incomes and quickly growing cost of living. Our world is not sufficiently prepared to deal with those trajectories. IIER research helps by shifting the focus of societies away from the objective of “getting growth back at all cost” to “mitigating possible stagnation or decline.” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c47ff0829711455c3987d68/1555292429407-BF7O4ZT60I3SJJCJIS9O/Screen+Shot+2019-04-15+at+11.38.41+am.png IIER-Australia EUROPE - IIER Paper - Nudging 3% of voters to keep democracies intact This paper discusses how to reduce the voter potential of far-right or -left movements with simplistic “solutions” just enough to keep them from taking power and turning an already precarious economic and societal situation to even more dire proportions. One major obstacle in fighting fringe parties is that few politicians today are ready to tell voters the truth: that the future might hold less economic promise and that we must stop focusing on growth, but instead accept the challenge to focus on wellbeing on a broader scale. A large proportion of advanced societies’ populations intuitively grasps this reality, as polls show, but it is neither supported by the electoral discourse nor any other credible source.